2024-04-28 (0) Slashdot posting before the editors mangle it.

As submitted, then edited.

Slashdot's editors often (daily, if not more often) get a slating for errors, and doing, esentially, nothing. Now, as a regular submitter (occasionally accepted - my count is approaching 130 stories ; whingers - get to that count yourself or stop whinging about the site's content) I know that's bullshit, but I'd never actually sat down to record the difference between what I submitted, and what the Ed. (EditorDavid, one of about a dozen) changed before posting the story to the "front page".

I forgot to mention that I fat-fingered the title in my submission : "shy" not "sky".

I should note that this is not my first brush with the editorial "blue pencil" - in the 1990s and 2000s I volunteered on a community (specifically, trade union) newsletter, supervised by a former newsroom (print and TV) editor, Bob Gibb (also a journalist for Lloyd's List, the shipping newspaper). Bob never seriously discouraged my over-wordy, excessive-detail style. It's easy for me to cut down your work, because I rarely need to add anything; just rearrange it, and clarify it. Far easier than writing it myself!

Vale, Bob.

I submitted my story in the wee sma' hoors of 2024-04-29, and it was accepted at 7:34 (time zone unsure ; I'm Zulu) by "EditorDavid", with these revisions : superseded text (deleted by Ed.) ; inserted text.

For clarification, I've no serious disputes with EditorDavid over this. I'm making notes to learn. No, as Bob would appreciate, "shome mishtake shurely"

The naked-eye sky will briefly host a "new" star.

By "star", I do not mean "comet", "meteorite" or "firefly", but genuine [star] photons arriving here after about 3000 years in flight, causing your eyes to see a bright point on the nighttime sky. When it happens, the star will go from needing a telescope ot good binoculars to see, to being the 50th (or even 30th) brightest star in the sky. PARA For a week or so.PARA

Of course, it could just go full-on supernova, and be visible in daylight for a few weeks, and dominate the night sky for months. But that's unlikely.

Named "T Corona Borealis" (meaning : because it is the 20th variable star studied in the constellation "Corona Borealis") is a variable star in the northern sky - circumpolar ( it's now visible all night, all year) for about 60% of the world's population which although normally you need binoculars to see it. PARA For over 150 years it has been known to vary in brightness, slightly. But in 1866, it suddenly brightened to become about the 35th brightest star in the sky. "Suddenly" meaning it was invisible one hour, and near full brightness an hour later. That made it a dramatic "nova" ("new star"), if not a "supernova", and people watched it like hungry haws as it faded over the next weeks, and months, and years.

And it faded back into it's previous obscurity, just wobbling a little, well below naked-eye visibility.

Until the late 1930s, when it started to change it's ESTABLISHED 280-day cyclic pattern. Then, in 1946 ... someone turned the switch back on, and again in less than an hour it brightened about 240 times, again becoming about the 50th brightest object in the sky. Which made it almost unique - a recurring nova. Today, only 10 of these are known, and they're extremely important for understanding the mechanisms underlying novae.

In 2016, "T CrB" (as it is known) started showing a similar pattern of changes to what were seen in the late 1930s. But RockDoctor writes that in 2016, "T CrB" (as it is known) has started showing "a similar pattern of changes" to what happened in the late 1930s when it became one of only 10 "recurring nova" known to science:

In 2023, the pattern continued and the match of details got better.PARA

The star is expected to undergo another "eruption" EN-dash EM-dash becoming one of the brightest few stars in the sky, within the next couple of months. Maybe the next couple of weeks. Maybe the next couple of hours. I'll check the databases before submitting the story, and advise the editors to check too. [I expected this to be deleted]

Last week, astrophysicist Dr Becky Smethurst posted on the expected event in her monthly "Night Sky News" video blog. If you prefer your information in text not video, the AAVSO (variable star observers) posted a news alert for it's observers a while ago. They also hosted a seminar on the star, and why it's eruption is expected Real Soon Now, which is also on YouTube. A small selection of recent papers on the subject are posted here, which also includes information on how to get the most up-to-date (unless you're a HST / JWST / Palomar / Hawai`i / Chile telescope operator) brightness readings. Yes, the "big guns" of astronomy have prepared their "TOO - Target Of Opportunity" plans, and will be dropping normal observations really quickly when the news breaks and slewing TOO the target.

You won't need your eclipse glasses for this (Dr Becky's video covers where you can send them for re-use), but you might want to photograph the appropriate part of the sky so you'll notice when the bomb goes off.

Bomb? Did I say that the best model for what is happening is a thermonuclear explosion like a H-bomb the size of the Earth detonating? Well, that's the best analogue. Understandably, taking a "close" (3000 light years - not close enough?) look at one seems like a good idea.

Preview, check for brightening/ detonation (JD 2460428.55208 = 2024 Apr. 28.05208 mag 9.905 ± 0.0052 - not "Gone" yet!), submit. This CNN article includes a nice animation from NASA illustrating the multi-star interaction that's causing the event:

The stars in the orbiting pair are close enough to each other that they interact violently. The red giant becomes increasingly unstable over time as it heats up, casting off its outer layers that land as matter on the white dwarf star. The exchange of matter causes the atmosphere of the white dwarf to gradually heat until it experiences a "runaway thermonuclear reaction," resulting in a nova [according to NASA]... The NASAUniverse account on X, formerly known as Twitter, will provide updates about the outburst and its appearance.

The BBC reiterates the key data points — that "The rare cosmic event is expected to take place sometime before September 2024. When it occurs it will likely be visible to the naked eye. No expensive telescope will be needed to witness this cosmic performance, says NASA."

Footnote

And, in the tradition I established while writing this post, I'll check the database : JD 2460429.6875, date/ time 2024 Apr. 29.18750, magnitude 10.0. No eruption yet!

Sector collapse

When we were doing the Vulcanology trip to Tenerife, a couple of the stops were to examine the faults bounding the Guimar (SE coast) and Santa Cruz (N coast) collapses. Always worth thinking about, even without the fears stirred up by that Portsmouth (?) hazard research centre.
Well, Prof Ceiling Cat Emeritus has been posting about his current jaunt around Hawai'i, and one look at the geography of Oahu made me think "sector collapse" again.

Oh dear, that's not good looking. That looks like lumps of islands 10km by 20km which have broken off and slid over 50km down the seabed slope.
What does the profile look like? (following the white line in the bathymetry plot)

10km NE-SW by 20km NW-SE by 1.5km thick. That's a big chunk of rock. The tsunami that hit the Pacific coasts (and particularly the British Columbia to Washington section) would have been ... unhealthy to see. I wonder what the date was.

For comparison, here's the most recent slump from the North side of Tenerife.

(250m bathymetry contours, bolded at 1000m intervals, for all images) The characteristic "lumps on the sea floor" of a slump can be seen. In the profile you can estimate the thickness of the largest lump, though this slump seems to have fragmented more than the Hawai'i example above.

 To a first approximation, say 5km by 3km by 0.25km. More detailed mapping with sonar shows that a lot of the seabed has rough areas which are interpreted as earlier generations of slump. Upwards of 20 slumps have been identified around the Canaries archipelago. 
Probably the most recent slump around Tenerife (unless it has "gone" while I'm typing) is from the side of the island facing Gran Canaria.

 The profile shows how steeply the islands drop off away from the volcanic centres.

Note the level of the inter-island gap - 2.5km below sea level - compared to the abyssal plain to the North at over 3.5km below sea level. There is around a kilometre of fill in this gap which hasn't accumulated to the North.

 Since the turn of the millennium there has been considerable speculation about the possibility of major landslides from the flanks of volcanic islands in general, and the Canary archipelago in particular. While concern about the particular claims concerning a West-flank collapse of La Palma have somewhat abated, there are certainly major landslip features around ocean islands. The recent (22 December 2018) flank collapse of Anak Krakatoa in the Indonesian archipelago killed over 400 people, making the point that these things do indeed happen.