May Notes Page

Articles studied this month - some of which might go to Slashdot.
Left over from April Renumbering Of The Antikythera Mechanism Saros Cells, Resulting From The Saros Spiral Mechanical Apokatastasis
Diurnal variation of the surface temperature of Mars with the Emirates Mars Mission: A comparison with Curiosity and Perseverance rover measurements
The origin of Earth’s mantle nitrogen: primordial or early biogeochemical cycling
A numerical approach using a finite element model to constrain the possible interior layout of (16) Psyche
The possible formation of Jupiter from supersolar gas
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May science readings.

What didn't I get to in April.
ReferenceLinkDiscussion
The Planetary Science Journal, 3:92 (11pp), 2022 AprilLarge-scale Volcanism and the Heat Death of Terrestrial WorldsConsiders the likelihood of near-simultaneous LIPs (Large Igneous Provinces) on Earth, and their possible consequences. Which could be a way that Venus hit it's greenhouse runaway while Earth hasn't - yet.
arXiv:2204.10832v1Longitudinal Variation of H2O Ice Absorption on MirandaA number of "small bodies", particularly those tidally locked to a larger body, have obvious accumulations of dark ("tholin") mareial on one aspect, but not on others. This has been seen previously for 4 of the main satellites of Uranus, but not for Miranda. Remembering, of course, that the Uranian system hasn't been visited since Voyager.
Mediterranean Archaeology and Archaeometry Vol. 21, No 2, (2021), pp. 107-128 Renumbering Of The Antikythera Mechanism Saros Cells, Resulting From The Saros Spiral Mechanical Apokatastasis The Antikythera mechanism is always good for commentary. This work looks at the symmetry of the mechanism to suppress the effects of post-manufacture damage. They come up with a new proposed date for the calibration of the mechanism - and hence maybe it's manufacture. Yeah, I think I need to look closely at this one.

And that's the backlog sort-of addressed.

Renumbering Of The Antikythera Mechanism Saros Cells, Resulting From The Saros Spiral Mechanical Apokatastasis

Mediterranean Archaeology and Archaeometry Vol. 21, No 2, (2021), pp. 107-128

The Antikythera mechanism has substantially deformed in it's time under the ocean (original density of the bronze (about 8.87 g/cc ; current density about 3.4 g/cc ; sides aren't straight ; the mechanism disintegrated after eing brought to the surface and drying out - this is why marine archaeology puts finds straight into salt-water tanks on surfacing, and takes years to clean them). Pins, straps and machined-out grooves further complicate the stiffness of the structure, throwing direct measuremnts of the structure into some doubt. The authors propose that considerations of symmetry in the external and internal design of the mechanism might help resolve or resuce ambiguities in the mechanical analysis, to try to work out which Saros cycle the mechanism was intended to start predicting eclipses at. Unfortunately they don't give a specific date- but do add the constraint that the readout spiral starts with a month which includes a solar eclipse and the second half Saros starts with a lunar eclipse. Which probably means a series of possible start dates, 223 synodic months apart. How much ofan advance that is, I'm not sure.

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Diurnal variation of the surface temperature of Mars with the Emirates Mars Mission: A comparison with Curiosity and Perseverance rover measurements

arXiv, for MNRAS

A fairly simple one this one - there are several thermometers in various places on Mars. Having a radiation thermometer ("EMIRS", one of the less strained astronomical acronyms) in space, in a simpler environment, allows comparison between these multiple measures, for a more global picture (exactly like the effect Earth Observation Satellites (EOS) have on terrestrial environmental measurements.

Any surprises? There is a small difference between the temperatures seen by EMIRS (from high, covering a large area around the rover) and the MEDA instrument package on Mars 2020 (viewing the immediate proximity of the rover), during night time observations. The difference varies between 10 and 20 Kelvin (compared to instrument precisions of 1-3 K). The proposed explanation of this diffference is that the rover's drivers choose a less rocky, less rough route for it to travel along, while the satellite observes a wider area, including the rockier areas, with slightly less heat retention than the area around the rover. Well, maybe, maybe not. Time and argument will tell.

The paper introduces - to me - the Mars Climate Database (MCD) - which are at http://www-mars.lmd.jussieu.fr/, and allow you to get time- or location- constrained sets of up to 4 of about 50 parameters. Worth noting. Here is the weather (at time of writing) on Olympus Mons.

"Fun", for a very specific type of "fun".

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The origin of Earth’s mantle nitrogen: primordial or early biogeochemical cycling

link

Hmmm. Interesting. So, the Earth has a lot of nitrogen in it's atmosphere, and it is an essential, often a limiting nutrient. But there is about as much nitrogen in dissolved in the mantle as in the atmosphere, and nitrogen doesn't have a high solubility in magmas (from experimental data) ... so how did the nitrogen get into the mantle? Two options are examined - that the nitrogen is primordial - pre-dating the current arrangement of Earth and atmosphere - or that the nitrogen has been introduced by subdction of nitrogenous sediments. Which needs the nitrogen to be in mineralised forms, as a likely product of biological nitrogen cycling. Very early biological cycling.

Plain Language Summary

Nitrogen (N) is the main component of Earth’s atmosphere, and essential for life. The atmospheric N content influences Earth’s climate and capability to retain its surface water. Primary biological production is limited by bio-available N as well as phosphorous on modern Earth. It has been recently recognized that Earth’s interior contains N comparable to that found in its atmosphere, and thus its origin is important for our understanding of Earth-life co-evolution. We modeled N partitioning in Earth’s molten stage and long-term cycling after Earth’s solidification. Two scenarios are proposed from our modeling. One is that Earth’s mantle acquired its modern N content in the earlier stage due to an excess amount of N Earth accreted, which was later lost to space following asteroid impacts. Another is that Earth’s mantle acquired N via subduction of N-rich sediments, which requires the sedimentary N burial rate on early Earth comparable to the modern value sustained by biological activity. The two scenarios can be tested with future analysis of the geochemical record of surface and mantle N.

Good plain language summary. More journals should try something like that (like PNAS's "Significance" statement).

How much nitrogen is in the early mantle will influence - a lot - the nitrogen levels in the atmosphere, and with it the degree of greenhouse warming (di-nitrogen, N2 itself is not a greenhouse gas, but by bulking up the atmosphere it broadens the IR absorbtion bands of other gasses, enhancing their greenhouse potentials. That holds for water vapour as much as CO2.) subducting N on modern Earth has δ15N ∼ +6‰ [...] Thus, efficient subduction should lead to 15N enrichment in the mantle. Carbon-bearing deep mantle diamonds have been found to host N with almost exclusively positive δ15N values, which might be consistent with an origin from subducted oceanic sediments. However, MORBs (Mid-Ocean Ridge Basalts - in the slim chance that anyone other than me reads this.) on the other hand have less positive δ15N values (typically, ~-5‰) which is generally taken to imply that the mantle contains a significantly negatively enriched N reservoir. But the authiors seem to blow hot then cold on this question. A little later they say (my emphasis): The N isotopic ratio of initial mantle is from −40 to 0‰ as found in enstatite chondrites. We note that such low δ15N values have been reported for some rare diamonds from Earth’s mantle, which possibly record the signature of Earth’s N source (Palot et al., 2012). To my mind, that implies that they don't think that the typical mantle composition is as negatively enriched as that. Which is odd.

So, did the Earth's mantle get it's nitrogen inventory by primordial inheritance, or through biogenic nitrogen cycling? That's not clear.

One useful point is their discussion of how N solubility is related to oxidation state. Neutral N (as dinitrogen, N2) behaves similarly to Ar, an inert gas but in a reduced magma (reduced below the QFM buffer?) the N is present as NH4+, and can substitute for K+ in mineral lattices.

It's a modelling result, so highly prone to one's premises. That question about the reduction state of the Earth's mantle before the Great Oxidation Event of roughly 3.2 ~ 2.0 Gyr BP. and how soluble nitrogen was then. But without that, doe the nitrogen content of the mantle require a highly biogenic source of subducted N, very early in the Earth's history. Which isn't without precedent (the alleged carbon enrichment in Akilia's near-Hadean metasediments, for example), but is nibbling away at the fairly hard limit on the origin of life, as some time between the formation of the Earth, and the oldest fossils (trating Akilia's apatite-encased graphite as a fossil). You might stretch a point and look at the Moon-forming impact as the early bound, ut that only shifts borders by around 0.1 Gyr of a ~0.8 Gyr window.

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A numerical approach using a finite element model to constrain the possible interior layout of (16) Psyche

arXiv, no indication which journal it's intended for, or if it has been accepted.

So, why did this grab my attention? Probably it's that an awful lot of Musk-o-philes think it's an almost archaetypal asteroid - made of metal, big, lumpy, ideal for mining for "Precious Metals Measurless to Man" (to mis-quote Coleridge). It's what people want to hear, so it's what people hear. They don't want to hear that it comprises about 1% of the mass of the asteroid belt, which is reasonably consistent with other estimates of the abundance of metal-rich ("M-type" ; nothing to do with Star Trek) asteroids.

The paper is about modelling efforts to try to constrain the internal structure of Psyche, given the observations. It has metal on it's surface (spectroscopy tells us this, but radar reflectance also tells us that the surface is not entirely metals) ; it is not pure metal (iron meteorites have density typically ~7.5 g/cc (7500kg/m3 ; Psyche has overall density ~4.0).

The density data could be achieved by a rubble-pile structure with porosity of about 50% - but it would have remained malleable (temperature >~800K) until well after the bombardment intensity decreased below what would be needed to make so much porosity. Therefore the mixed composition (metals plus silicates) is the likely route to follow. That in itself raises a question - if the body is large enough and hot enough to be soft, why didn't large metal masses sink into the core? At which point, "ferrovolcanism" - the eruption of metal-rich magmas to the surface becomes a logical necessity.

We don't know the interior structure of Psyche - that's why there is an investigation mission somewhere between the drawing board and the assembly room - but people are working on models of it so that when more data comes in, the options can be rapidly narrowed down. Standard science - incremental advance, testing hypotheses against reality and discarding those that are wrong- Feynman would be proud.

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The possible formation of Jupiter from supersolar gas

arXiv, accepted for Planetary.Sci Journal

FTFA, More than two decades ago, the Galileo probe performed in situ measurements of the composition of Jupiter’s atmosphere and found that the abundances of C, N, S, P, Ar, Kr and Xe were all enriched by factors of 1.5–5.4 times their protosolar value. Juno’s measurements recently confirmed the supersolar N abundance and also found that the O abundance was enriched by a factor 1–5 compared to its protosolar value. So ... if Jupiter was formed from the smae gas as the Solar nebula, then 1 to [several] Jupiter-masses (MJ) of [H, He] material has been lost from Jupiter. Or, it was formed from a [H, He]-depleted region of the Solar nebula. But that "region of the Solar nebula" was probably most of the nebula, which is somewhat challenging.

Note that the abundances have been confirmed by two sets of measurements - from Galileo and from Juno - so it would take religious/ Trumpian levels of mendacity to claim the results are "fake news".

The results of modelling the inflow of dusts (and vapours when the dusts comes in too close to the Sun) from the "proto-solar nebula" (PSN) with the majority of the PSN (H, He) staying out in the vasty deep, but the condensed materials (dusts, then their vapours) settling towards the Sun by dynamic friction.

Their modelling shows that the right sort of composition of material occurs between the H2O and CO2 "ice-lines" (about 4AU from the Sun) between about 100 kyr and 300 kyr after solar ignition. Which is pretty early - compared to "planetesimal accretion models for the formation of the "terrestrial" planets, but people have always thought that most of the accretion of the gas giants took place very early, with the terrestrial planets (and "small bodies") forming as the giants exhibit their pas de deux of orbital evolution as the last of the nebula dissipates.

On the other hand, the necessary accretion timescales and rates are compatible with both core-accretion and gravitational-instability models for building a gas giant. This model doesn't help us decide which mechanism (or possibly, a third, but they're the two lead contenders by a considerable margin) occurred - or possibly both, in close sequence - but it does suggest that both are plausible.

Real Life &tm; intruded.

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Is Betelgeuse Shrinking?

Paper : Systematic Change With Time In The Size Of Betelgeuse

Astrophysical Journal, 2009

I was tidying a corner of my hard drive earlier and found this paper. "Eny fule no" (well, at least, in my target audience, which is "me") that Betelgeuse was the first star to have it's size measured directly, using an interferometer bolted onto the top of the Mt Wilson "100-inch" telescope in the 1920s. Which was great. But one measurement is just that - one measurement. So, you repeat it (checking theat a new instrument is working, or if the diameter seems different at different wavelengths), because with one measurement, you have a data point, with two measurments, you have a disagreement, and with three measurements you are starting to understand any variation in the signal.

That thing about wavelength of observation may be slightly surprising, but when you think that Betelgeuse is itself a very red colour, and that spheres exhibit "limb darkening", it becomes less surprising that aparrent diameter is quite dependent o nthe wavelength you do your observation at.

The important point about the 2009 paper is that they performed multiple measurements over the years, but all at the same IR wavelength, so "apples are compared with apples". And they see a consistent change in diameter, which they fit a quadratic curve to. Quadratic, opening downwards. Which means, it's going to cross the "zero size axis" at some point in the future. I did a bit of mental figuring, then needed to work out the numbers, because apporximately Betelgeuse should be reaching "zero" size about now.

OK, people, I do realise that I'm extrapolating to about 7 times the original dataset's span. Not generally considered a good thing. But what the hey - with Betelgeuse still showing substantial, rapid brightness fluctuations, the prospect of it going out might excite the people waiting with baitéd breath. Doing the same quadratic (polynomial, order 2) fit as the original authors, and converting the dates from the paper to the standard Julian Day measure, to get this.

Re-plot of 2009 paper data, with equations.

The equations OOCalc churns out are on the printout, but aren't terribly important. Decent R-squared values though, over 0.9 for both. So, simplistically, the expected "zero diameter date range for Betelgeuse is 2030 to about 2040. Interesting. All terribly exciting.

I'd suspected that the imaging had just caught a part of a (very roughly) sinusoidal variation, and it just looked like a quadratic over that part of the cycle. I'm going to add the other diameter estimates into the data set. Firstly, there's the 1920 data, and that, in itself ought to hold a warning - a third-order (i.e. cubic) polynomial fits as well as a quadratic.

Let's see what I can find in intermediate data, to try to clarify that cubic/ quadratic question.

In 1973, a group used a TV camera to "speckle" the image of Betelgeuse and estimate it's diameter. That's in a visible waveband, so not directly comparable with the mid-IR data - but I'll compare them anyway. (Source : Astrophysical Journal, v181:L1-L4, 1973 April 1 (oh dear, an ominous date ; but I don't see much sign of jocularity ; I'll take it straight.) "Speckle Interferometry: Color-dependent Limb Darkening Evidenced On Alpha Orionis And Omicron Ceti"). They give several diameter estimates at different colour bands. The longest wavelength (closest to the mid-IR figures so far) size for Betelgeuse is (date 1972-09-09, wavelength 7190 Å, diameter 52 ±5 mas), so I'll plot that (JD 2441570).

Ohhh, that's lovely - really wrecks the correlation. The cubic fit for maximum diameter still drops to zero in the foreseeable future (and I've "improved" the 2extrapolating wildly beyond the dataset problem too - less than doubling the range of prediction. And some more data (Astron & Astrophys, v115, p253, 1982 July 20"The angular diameter of Betelgeuse.", using data from similar methods on other telescopes) gives two data lines (again, selecting the longest wavelength readings) of 1978-11-09, 7150±20Å 67±4 mas and 1979-02-22, 7730±84%Aring;, 62±2 mas. And I plot them up too, and it actually maintains the fit, if not at quite such good correlation coefficients. Although it doesn't really look like it, that fit for the maximum diameter (blue line) is actually a cubic curve, but it's so close to quadratic that the original author's choice is fully vindicated.

Well, I've found all the data I can. Or have I? I'm just referencing data from the 2009 paper. Has there been anything more recent? nothing significant I can find. It's a fun idea, that Betelgeuse is shrinking. It's probably nothing - just the reasonably well-known pulsation of some stars, particualarly big ones, possibly combined with shedding annuli of material from the surface and that evolving over time. But ... it would be fun if a bright star was to disappear from our sky. Much freaking out would happen.

(Is the "C.Townes" who keeps appearing in these references the guy who invented the maser/ laser? Would be a relevant field. ... Seems that it is.) Died 2015.

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